Projections change daily as more data is made available and as the situation changes. The bad news is that the worst is yet to come, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. recent models show that there will be a lot less sickness and death than was though just days ago.
For the most up to date projections by state, one resource available to you is here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
For my state, Tennessee, it looks like the peak will occur in 9 days and we will not have a shortage of beds or ventilators. Some other states, Like NY, are projected to have a shortage, but not nearly as bad as was thought just a few days ago. The situation changes daily though, so pray that the news continues to get better and that fewer people will fall victim to this virus.
Wow , This such a problem. I seen in Wisconsin on the news today people standing in voting lines wearing no mask and with in 1 foot distance of each other. What about the spread of the virus. We can go vote but cant work.
My state is short 16,000 hospital beds, and the model mentioned above has wildly underestimated where this was supposed to go. Last week that model said 59 folks would die of Covid-19 the next day, when the real number turned out to be 216. Day after that, they added 10 days to the Days-to-Peak.
I think the most you should infer from those models is what direction the pandemic is heading in your area. The scale of numbers are unreliable, imho.
Until we have a testing program in place to be able to identify those who’ve had it, those who have immunity, who’s asymptomatic, and who’s at risk, nothings going to change much.
There has been a complete failure when it comes to testing, and that’s putting it lightly.
As for the models, IMO they can be “somewhat” predictive as long as the data that was input matches peoples behaviors, the weather, and any other variables that get input to get a general picture.
As for a vaccine, looks like the soonest will be spring of 2021, and that’s if everything goes as planned.