Recently ESOP expelled 2 Canadian members. I was personally opposed to the decisions to have them removed from InterNACHI. One of the 2 is a close personal friend of mine who has helped InterNACHI and me many times for many years. I’d go as far as saying there wouldn’t be an InterNACHI presence in Canada without him. He is a good friend and I love him. But before everyone (including me) starts thinking poorly of ESOP, I wanted to state for the record that the chances of this decision having little to do with the 2 ex-members is almost zero. Clearly the two ex-members played a role in their fate.
For many years, leaders and members of other Canadian associations have sent me email after email after email (hundreds in all) complaining about these very 2 members. I ignored all of them for years, until today. Today I decided to calculate what the odds were of this being pure coincidence.
There are about 3,000 inspectors in Canada of which my inbox for years is packed with complaints from 2 other Canadian associations regarding only 2 inspectors. I won’t go into all their charges and complaints. Anyway, ESOP recently removed the very same 2 inspectors from InterNACHI. InterNACHI almost never expelles anyone, so the results of our analysis should end up dramatic.
Let’s see what the odds of this being pure coincidence (the ex-members being innocent victims of ESOP and having played no role this situation) are. The odds of one of the 2 members ESOP expelled, also being one of the 2 very other inspectors that the other associations had trouble with, is 1 in 1,500 (there is a 1 in 1500 chance of drawing 1 of 2 inspectors from a pool of 3,000). Then, the odds of the exact other inspector being expelled by ESOP is 1 in 2,999 (there is a 1 in 2,999 chance of drawing 1 inspector from a pool 2,999).
Now here is where it gets interesting. The odds of them expelling those exact 2 members coincidentally (meaning that the ex-members themselves had NO ROLE in any of this and are purely innocent victims of ESOP) is (1 divided by 1,500) times (1 divided by 2,999) or 1 in 4,498,500. Or in other words… impossible.
I waited until after ESOPs decision today to make this post.
One of the 2 ex-members is my dear friend and always will be. I love him. But basic probability and statistics support several of ESOPs contentions.