Looming slowdown in So Cal?

(Nicholas R. Peres) #1

All the local agents have been losing their minds over this social media post:

:sos:MUST READ​:sos:
Best be working now, best be selling now🧐

Arguably June,July and August are typically the busiest months of the year. So taking data from June 1-30th 2017 compared to June 1-30th 2018 here are the results. I tracked only Temecula, Murrieta, French valley and Wildomar.

Active avail properties
June 2017 = 684
June 2018 = 500

27% decrease of avail inventory

Closed sales
June 2017 = 665
June 2018 = 523

21% decrease

Pending sales
This one is really a big telltale sign.
June 2017 = 539
June 2018 = 263

51% decrease. YIKES that doesn’t bode well for July stats.

Avg sales price
June 2017 = $449,429
June 2018 = $479,826

A 6.4% increase. (Seems good)

Homes sold over $1m

June 2017 = 16
June 2018 = 9

43% decrease (not a good sign for sellers over $1m

Homes listed over $1m
June 2017 = 26
June 2018 = 44

66% increase

DOM for closed

June 2017. = 29.8 days
June 2018 = 48 days

62% increase in DOM

So year over year conclusion is. Values went up but so did interest rates. This has caused statistically a major slow down.

It will be interesting to see how July and August track. If we do not see a substantial increase. It will be a tough winter this year.

Just some numbers to chew on.

I’d say if your an agent. Cut your operating costs. And work harder!

(Stephen W. Stanczyk, WA License #221) #2

Sorry, but those numbers don’t mean diddly squat.

(Gary D. Rowden) #3

Temecula and Murrieta are my main market areas and for me I have not felt any slowdown, if anything I have increased. If your business has slowed down then maybe you should increase your market area.

(Jeffrey R. Jonas) #4

Quit nit-picking the numbers. If you want my opinion of what the numbers mean… sellers are getting greedy with their “values” (NOT), and potential buyers are calling their BS!

(Eugene Hacker) #5

Thank you for sharing this information.

I track sales and price data in my area. It is good to know what is happening in the housing markets you are involved in.

Look into “Bruce Norris” he has a really amazing track record when it comes to the So Cal housing markets. He has a podcast that is really good too.

(Ian W. Mayer, CMI) #6

Yes and no.

I’m seeing high-end homes move slower and have price cuts.

But the lower to medium priced houses are still going into multiple offers.

Though a slow down would actually help inspectors, because if the market kept going on that pace it was, more home buyers would start waving their inspection contingencies to be competitive. My neighbor sold her house last spring, and the buyer waived their inspection. Good for her, bad for me. So I welcome a little shift.

(David A. Andersen, TN HI# 40) #7

You actually think that is what is the cause?

Think again…

(Jeffrey R. Pope, CMI) #8

My thoughts exactly…

(Nicholas R. Peres) #9

Apparently I should have added a preface to this post, because some of you are addressing me like this was my research/opinion. I copied and pasted a social media post that is circulating with the local So Cal real estate community. That’s it. I’m not saying I agree, etc. I have a university education in finance and business economics and I’m 3rd generation in real estate/construction. Trust me, I have an original opinion.

(Nicholas R. Peres) #10

Thanks, I’m very aware of Bruce Norris and his work. I haven’t seen anything from him lately regarding volume, just price forecasts.

(Nicholas R. Peres) #11

Would you guys care to expound on this?

(John Hastey, 495286 B-1) #12

It sorta does strain the logical processes to assert the position that numbers don’t mean anything. Moreover, an assertion of that nature stemming purely from an anecdotal basis (i.e. citing one’s own inspection numbers) is statistically meaningless.

If the trend suggested by the posted sales figures continues, the relevance of that trend to inspectors will become apparent to all. As a wise man once said, “a receding tide lowers all boats.”