2010 will be the year of the vacant commercial property… up for sale.
And it will remain that way for quite some time as there are currently no commercial buyer or Leasees on the horizon, and even if there were there’s little to no commercial lending taking place while the banks are still recovering from 2008/2009 losses.
It’s going to be a terrible year for commercial inspectors
It will be the best year for commercial inspectors in human history. More commercial buildings will be bought and sold in 2010 than in the past 25 years combined. Commercial investors are walking away from their buildings to pickup similar (or in some cases the very same building) at 1/2 price.
Not only do I doubt that, very few will get inspected, they’ll be bought at cents on the dollar and mothballed awaiting better times. They sure as hell aren’t getting inspected
The weapon-of-choice for beating up a bank officer trying to get out of being a landlord, is an inspection report, and every commercial buyer knows it.
A good part of my clientele are investors… that’s exactly what they “use and abuse” me for.
Nick, your area must be doing something different to the national trend, the only commercial movement down here is a very few office based businesses (Doctor and Lawyers) moving out of rented suites to stand alone freehold space and very little of that. I have personaly quoted for over $40k of commercial inspection work in the last 6 weeks and every deal has fallen through. Your buyers aren’t buying and the banks have not yet started to take their losses on Commercial property, even when they do they still won’t attract buyers due to very low income levels from commercial space, and again a complete lack of commercial financing.
Drive down any major route here in Florida to see office space at 25% occupation, car dealerships with chainlink around them and strip malls at 50% leased There is no market for any of that, the resturant/hospitality business is even worse.
A few people I work with have indicated they had foreseen picking up some commercial in 2010, albeit some of the smaller strips and such… still, for me, I saw more commercial activity/phone calls the latter of Dec than I had prior to that in awhile.
All things being equal, I’m hoping for a good 2010 in that department…remains to be seen.
What you describe Gerry (high vacancy and non-performing properties) is the first step to a year where a lot of commercial property changes hands. There is no pressure to sell on owners of high-occupancy property that is growing in value. It’s all going up for sale this year and prices are falling. Investors are standing on the side lines like vultures.
Get ready to learn to speak and write Chinese and German. All the large commercial buildings around my neck of the woods are being bought up by foreign investment companies.
Same in FL too.
Nick, I hope you are right!
Remember to join the ComInspect Network It is free. If I get a lead in your area I’ll give it to you and we want no piece of it. You keep it all.
I wish, seriously give up some stats that support this, it was the case 3 years ago, but not now. The market has far from bottomed here.
Quite a few of the banks are showing A great Postive Margin that is why their high rank employes are getting BONUSES If fact they are making so much money they were able to pay back the tarp money with intrest and still show a profit.:roll:
Could it be because they are not marking to market the actual value of the mortgage paper they hold? Absolutely.
Many of these same banks are literally insolvent.
Nick it’s a shame you write but don’t read, there is little doubt that Commercial foreclosures are going to be huge, unfortunately there are no buyers for properties that won’t make money anytime soon.
As with the housing sector, properties in forclosure don’t get inspected until SOLD, with little interest in commercial property from investors these properties are simply not going to sell anytime soon.
The banks used the TARP money, buying stocks when they was low, not actually borrowing the monies out. That is just not right.
I have found the banks, who presently own the foreclosed residential properties, to be exceedingly arrogant and uncooperative with potential buyers. Not only do they not seek their own inspections…they interfere and attempt to discourage attempts by buyers to have inspections.
Somehow, they escape the requirements of disclosure…even highlight it in their sales contracts that they are not required to disclose…and when the buyer insists on an inspection, it is his duty to de-winterize and energize the power sources at his expense.
I cannot imagine that their demeanor will change much just because the property is zoned “commercial” versus “residential”.