InterNACHI's Pending Home Sales Indicator

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/u-s-pending-home-sales-decline-unexpectedly-on-record-prices

“Unexpectedly?”

These stupid stock brokers need to follow InterNACHI’s IPHSI. We predict it way ahead of everyone else.

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What market is this? Where are the data numbers?

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Does this exist anymore?

Yes. It’s very accurate too. Best predictor of home sales out there.

Big picture questions:

  1. Where’s the seasonal correction? Home sales here always take a pause over the winter.

  2. Where’s the beef? I’m quite certain my data does not appear here. Who do you collect from? Not all members certainly. What’s the true breadth of the data source?

  3. Can members op-in to this? Which online reporting software sends data to Nachi?

  4. What markets does this cover, and what markets is there not enough data for?

  1. Home inspectors don’t care about the reasons (weather, season, economy, interest rates) sales are going up or down relative to the past… as much as they care if there will be fewer or more actual inspections coming up. So our index gives them actual pending sales numbers, unadjusted.
  2. We use data from our online agreement system. To be accurate enough for an index we need to count from a sample of about 400 inspectors. Our agreement system is used by more than 20 times that number of inspectors so our sample size is plenty big enough.
  3. You need not opt-in. You can just use your member username and password to see the index. No reporting software companies send data to us.
  4. U.S. and Canada. Since InterNACHI has more than 90% of all inspectors in North America, the only markets where we don’t have any data, are some northern provinces of Canada. But I don’t suspect there are many home sales there anyway.
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There is no scale on the graph and it appears to be a lagging trend indicator. Not that it really matters in the long run but seeing how it would look against listings would put it into perspective to better answer if the condition exists because there are fewer homes for sale or fewer buyers seeking homes to buy.

Mixed messages below from Orlando…

Housing market ‘gold rush’ over, but don’t expect prices to fall, economist says

The rush of buyers in the U.S. housing market last year and earlier this year was “like a gold rush,” but those days appear to be over, PNC Financial Services Group Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi told Orlando Business Journal.

However, the ongoing moderation of home sale activity and price gains doesn’t mean the market will shift in favor of homebuyers. In fact, it’s the opposite, Omodunbi said. “It’s going to be a seller’s market for the next couple of years.”

Omodunbi’s projections come in the face of slowing sales activity and a price drop in Central Florida.

Local homes sales fell month-over-month for the third straight month in September, dropping 5% to 3,879 sales, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. Meanwhile, the median price fell for the first time since September 2020, ticking down from $320,000 to $318,000.

However, the economist is not the only one who expects the hectic housing market to continue.

No. It’s a lagging indicator of home inspections contracted. But home inspections contracted is a leading indicator of home sales. In fact, it’s the best leading indicator as hiring a home inspector is about the very first thing someone does once their offer is accepted. We’re about 6 weeks ahead of NAR.

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“Busy for this time of year” is valuable all around. Home inspectors may take other seasonal jobs. Seeing the long term trend is useful.