18 years and have never seen it this slow

Hi all, with sincerity I hope you are getting consistant business flow.
Until 2022 my business level has been either in growth mode or a static mode at least with consistant number of inspections.
With typically 8 to 12 inspections per week, it pains me to say we’re now at 2 per week. The percentage drop off is brutal which brings up the question to you all, is it just the Phoenix market?
Are you folks seeing such a drastic reduction as I have?
My termite inspection company is utilized by about 20 other home inpsectors, they have had to let field techs go recently which they’ve never had to do, relationship with them is over 15 years, we talked shop openly during this time.
My regular realtors are all crying with some stating its the worst year they’ve had as well, and these are seasoned people.
This post could be viewed as pointless or venting, apologies if that’s how it reads, I only hope to ascertain if my market is state related or are we as an industry hurting as well nationally?

1 Like

The Internachi contract indicator does NOT show a big dip:

But that chart is not regional, and could be hiding a lot of regional concerns.

2 Likes

Here in Florida it’s simple economics where many borrowers hold mortgages with rates much lower than that which is being offered today making moving much more costly while driving demand down. Those people who have fixed rate 2.5% loans are unable to move up in this market, prices and/or rates will need to move lower to bring buyers back, in any case looks like the seller’s market has cooled and along with the drop in sales effects home inspections too.

2 Likes

I just hope these two lines do not become inverted like they at the beginning of the great recession.

Edit: This is for Phoenix…sorry, but you can search similar results for Scottsdale

2 Likes

Bryce, thank you that’s not a really accurate indicator but it gives a taste nevertheless thanks again for your energy in replying I appreciate that

Amen to that brian, we are playing with a deck of completely different fundamentals and thats really a good thing that I feel even pessimistically will protect us from the 60 plus percent of REO markets that we experienced in the great recession. However in the same breath that investor Market feed kept me busy without marketing, and we were maxxed out for about 6 years we were crushing it I do miss those times just saying

2 Likes

Slow for the time of year in Oregon and Maui. Some regions seem to be a lot less prone to the fluctuations than others and I’ve never really been able to figure out why. I’m sure there are multiple reasons. Throughout the “great recession” back around 2010 I remember guys in Texas and the mid-west stayed pretty busy but on the west coast we were super dead. I’m a bit worried to see what happens after Labor Day since it always slows down a bit. Basically, I’m hoping it doesn’t slow down even more. Same story with my agents. I keep in pretty close contact with many and they are definitely not staying busy like they usually do.

1 Like

Tray how much do you think the 21% reduction of Lake Mead water in 2023 has to do with your housing market? Do you think that new home buyers are unwilling to purchase a home in an area with a unknown water supply future?

6 Likes

Wow, what great intelligent insghtful repsonses!!!. Seriously tells a high level of overall intelligent market thoughts on things that frankly goes way beyond and maybe where we as an industry should be sighting in on. Way to go!!!

  1. Southwest market water issues; Our forefathers, Goldwater, and the likes, set this up for long going tolerance, but not to boar you, Arizona has and has always been drought pro active , moresore than, say California. Through congress ect, issues, sensitive as water has been the ONLY source of stimulas growth. LOOK THIS UP.
    That said, its never been a water issue with this state. Our congress over compensated for it to make the valley grow back in the day.
    Now, historitiallty speaking, we need a year of watershed or so to get acclimation back to ebb and flow rates.
    2022 Fall/spring shows high flow rates putting us back in line.
    No Gurarantee!!!
    That out of the equation, massive labor coming in, and high paying positions at that, we
    re looking strong. Meaning big guys like chip manufacturers, e enegy car guys, like Lucid, and competitors to Intel are throwing down billions into this state and local valey economy.
    Being lazy, it looks like they have the horsepower to confirm massive infrusucture, inticing housing, amongst many local gains, and the list goes on.
    Overanswering, though, it feels like like my market, over 18 years is frozen.
    In the last super bad recession, we had the investor pool kick in hard, now we don
    t because the market is 180 degrees driven opossite.
1 Like

I can tell you this, as a worker in a Intel chip fab they need a shit load of water to produce chips. They will tell you all day long the water is reclaimed and recycled. It is to an extent. The Intel chip plant in Rio Rancho NM has a 12” water main going into the plant. Chip plants burn water like crazy and Intel builds chip plants in the desert.

2 Likes

It would be fair to assume these chip people were smart. Now I seriously question my assumption.

1 Like

One of Intels leading plants is built in Israel. To be fair another leading plant is in Oregon.

2 Likes
2 Likes

I am about to take this thread sideways :crazy_face:

What did they do about global warming back then? It apparently worked eventually, so…let’s find out!

1 Like
1 Like

When my wife and I decided to move from NN AZ was high on the list. The water issue and population growth were heading in opposite directions. Phoenix says “we have a 50 year multi billion dollar plan”. Biden always likes to say he has a plan too. It includes pumping water from Mexico or the Missouri River. We’re like nope best of luck to ya.

Amen to your responses, and no denying on drought related issues here in the SW.
To re cap or be back on task, how’s workflow? No pun intended. My previous responses were literal with no sarcasm meant.
Based on the water supply issue brought up, sounds like according to you all, it’s a state issue, or perceived issue of water and water based slow down here in the region. Trying to make some long term decisions based on numerous feedback from the industry so your input is really valuable.
Thanks again.

1 Like

Interesting article. Puts some light on the subject.

I hope things pick back up for you. Maybe consider giving a temporary discount for 3 to 6 months. I know I’ll probably get lit up for saying that lol.

On another thought, I noticed you said you do termite inspections for other home inspectors. How does that work? Do you charge any price and they take their cut from it? I have seriously considered just offering ancillary services to other inspectors. I just don’t know how to go about it or how feasible it is.

image

6 Likes