Please take a look at these pictures and give me your opinion on the condition of the shingles.
You first.
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The roof covering appears worn and aged beyond its useful life. Some gutters are filled with granules indicating the underlying tar and felt are not sufficiently protected from uv rays
Looks like normal weathering of the shingles
Not yet
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I disagree.
Although worn and with minimal visible (hail) damage, barring any unusual weather or other mechanical damage(s) occurring, I bet it would go another 5-10+ years!
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Depends on where you are located.
My opinion on this has changed over the last few years. And it all has to do with the state that I live in. Due to the large amounts of hail and wind claims, multiple insurance companies are no longer writing policies in Iowa. The ones that are still writing are changing policies from recoverable depreciation to actual cash value. If a roof shows heavy granule loss, they look at it as the roof has exceeded its normal life expectancy and will not insure it. The decision on the severity of the granule loss comes from an underwriter looking at two or three crappy photos that a field inspector took from a camera pole. They are not looking at it as aesthetics vs performance. To mitigate their loss, they are saying that they will not insure it.
It has changed the way I report the conditions. Before, I would have reported that the roof is nearing the end of its normal life expectancy and recommend budgeting for its replacement in the near future. Now I report that the roof is at the end of its normal life expectancy and recommend having a qualified contractor replace it.
Obviously, some sellers and agent’s act like you are trying to kill the deal. They then get “their” roofer out to say the roof is fine. The roofer always recommends replacement.
Thanks. This is my parent’s roof. They are in their early 90’s so it doesn’t have to last much longer. I suspect it will need to be addressed prior to sale.
IMO, never replace a functioning item/system before sale. Let the buyers ask for it and negotiate. If you fix everything they’ll nickel and dime you with everything else after some asshat inspector comes up with 
As for your question, looks to be within its service life. Granules in the gutters often means pressure washing and there are some areas of heavier wear that go with that theory.
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Don’t let the gutter granules fool you. All roofs lose granules over time, and had the gutters been cleaned yesterday you would have no opinion on granular loss other than the visible condition of the shingle.
The granules in the gutter tray can reinforce what you see at the shingle, not the other way around.
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I agree. The shingles have good adhesion, no curling, and minimal fraying at edges (and the frayed edges I see looks like mechanical damage). There are some maintenance issues but I think it can keep on keeping on for some time.
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Yes, and the buildup could be from the last roof as well.
Clean out those gutters soon 
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I agree with Jeff and Brian.
It could go another 5-10 years easy.
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I agree with Jeff, Brian & Larry, there appears to be plenty of granules and life left, but if asked by a client how long the roof has, I might tell them 10 years, but I always add the caveated “depending on the weather, a hail or high wind event tomorrow could shorten it’s life span considerably”.
Here’s a picture of a roof with excessive granular loss that is toast.
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There is no way any Inspector can estimate with accuracy the age of any roof, unless he is holding the Invoice or the scope of work of the Last contractor that worked on that roof. “Close to have reached it’s life expectancy” it is not a serious professional statement. To determine the life expectancy of any roofing material you must be holding in your hand the specific manufacturers technical specification label and the actual Invoice from the whole seller that dispatched the shingles to the location where was to be installed. You must also have written documentation about all the maintenance and repair activities perform to such roof over the years. In addition, it would help to have the historic weather forecast over the years of every significant storm that passed through the region. Having all that at hand then you need a team of experts to perform invasive test to a representative sample of the actual shingles left on the roof, in laboratory equipped with sophisticated test tools. And if you’re still want to be professional you will have to provide in statistical percentage of error associated with your final age determination.
If you can determine that the entirely of the roof system, including shingles, flashings, drip edges, ventilation sub system are working as expected to protect the rest of the dwelling structure and its occupants from weather inclemencies, which is is intended mission, then you can report that the roof is doing its job satisfactorily. Aesthetically it may look ugly, but is doing its job! The house real estate resale market value may be impacted by the looks of the roof, and will be a point to bring to the negotiation table by a wise Realtor, but it should not be a deal-breaker at any time unless the buyer’s inspector can spot water intrusion of some kind.
But yes! the age of a roof is just like the age of a Lady. You are never going to get an honest answer, unless you have access to her Driver’s License or Birth Certificate (Similar to the last roofing contractor’s bill for work performed on the roof).
The manufacturer’s estimated life expectancy is also similar to the promise made to you by the father of the above mentioned Lady, all depends on how do you treat her over the years. You don’t just go out there and replace her in 15 years if she still doing her job of caring for your kids and yourself and the rest of the occupants of your home. Remember, some of them Ladies can break way before that! Specially if you are careless about their maintenance.
And please! Do not recommend to have a Licensed Roofing Contractor to climb on top of your “roof” to make further evaluation “of your roof” unless you have a good reason to do so. Such contractor may want to take your “roof” away even if it is still in good shape.
Note: Any similarity between the words “roof” and “lady”, is a mare coincidence and by the way, it applies also to the word “gentleman” in the event the dwelling‘ owner is a Lady.
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What you might be missing is that estimating the remaining useful life doesn’t require “knowing” the product’s date of birth.
Even that means little.
But we can estimate, approximate, and respond intelligently based on our knowledge, region, and industry standards. In fact, it is an industry standard to estimate or approximate.
Furthermore, if you are unwilling or unable to make a simple determination if something is nearing, at, or past life expectancy, I would disclaim the reason why.
All that novel can be thrown out the window if the attic has inadequate ventilation.
The condition of the roof is one of the highest concerns for buyers. I will let them know my thought, since that is what they pay me to do.
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You are right, we could do that. We could “estimate” based on our experience, but any estimate we might make regarding the age of a roof covering based solely on visual observation would lack accuracy and could lead to decisions made completely out of context.
Therefore, my commitment in this situation is to provide the client with knowledge and an understanding of how the roofing system functions, enabling them to make an informed decision, rather than imposing a pressing obligation that forces a premature or unnecessarily delayed choice. This involves explaining, for instance, the design rationale behind adding granules to asphalt shingles, and further clarifying that a lack of granules does not necessarily spell the end of the shingle’s service life.
Well, that would only be true if you do not know what the heck you are doing. Which, respectively, I am beginning to understand you do not…
Huh?
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Clean out those gutters, Son.
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