Numbers don’t and never will tell the whole story. Covid-19 is a little more insidious than the standard “flu.” The numbers are low because of the actions taken to limit social interaction. You cannot prove or disprove a thing that never occurred (taking no extra precautions). Your premise relies on suggesting that taking no action (social distancing) would have resulted in the same numbers of deaths.
If you look at Sweden for example, which chose not to shut down Compared to Hungary with a similar population density that did shut-down. There is evidence that shutting down may not have done anything. And the “Experts” models predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US, already took social distancing into account, Most all of their predictive models have been proven wrong. One thing for certain we are going to be feeling the economic aftermath from this shutdown (as well as related non-viral loss of life around the world) for many years to come. We as inspectors are going to see it in the coming months as real estate sales and transactions will most likely sink to historical lows.
The one thing I wish people would do is stop listening to the glorified reporting by MSM and also stop repeating rumors because that is what has been driving this monkey to the airport.
Not so pessimistic as you are Larry. Think the market will be recessed somewhat for a few months, but most analysts predict a buyers boom in the late fall. Right now could actually could be an ideal time to promote pre-listing inspections to sellers to make their homes stand out. IMHO.
You’re comparing apples and oranges. The demographics of each country are different. Most significantly the free movement of people between countries and within them. Italy recently enhanced its trade with China which increased its exposure by moving more people back and forth. If N. Korea in fact has less cases it may be because the people have little ability to travel. Because of its diversity the united States would be expected to have more cases simply because of its freedom of travel and association. Computer based “expert models” have been shown time and again to be error prone. The old computer maxim, “garbage in, garbage out.”
The thing of it is… CDC did NOT “revise down” the numbers. Twitter storms not withstanding, CDC released information explaining why there are two death counts.
The 37K number is the tally of deaths that have been verified via accepted documentation. When states and counties report Covid deaths, the certificate and other document recording can lag 1 to 8 weeks, depending on who sends it and when. This is out of CDC’s control. They expect that the reporting is close to accurate.
On CDC’s own Covid tracking site, the death toll is around 64K, as of yesterday, 2 May. Here’s a screen shot I took last night.
You’re interpreting the reported numbers wrong. There are two bodies of numbers getting reported: the CDC’s provisional data set, and the IHME’s data set. The CDC reports provisional numbers, which get updated every day as the official death certificates get sent in by county coroners. The CDC relies solely on death certificates. This is why the CDC calls them provisional, because there’s a lag between the death and the paperwork. The IHME is the organization that produces all the fancy charts and dot plots. The IHME does not rely on death certificates from county coroners. Instead, they get numbers from participating hospital systems and state health departments. The IHME’s numbers are more current. I think you’re interpreting this as “oh, the CDC is reducing their numbers!” When in fact, the CDC’s provisional counts have been lower since day one (their weekly provisional count reports are up on their website). It should be noted that the Trump administration is relying the IHME data, since it is more current.
That’s a really poor comparison, given the fact that Sweden ended up with more cases and deaths per 100,000 population than Hungary by a factor of 10.
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jdeoliveira2
(John Paul de Oliveira, GB-2 #86934 / AB #44580)
13
Quite possible that there will ‘officially’ be, before summer, 100,000 dead Americans from this ‘flu’ outbreak, and that will be happening with severe quarantines in place, and it is still ramping up exponentially at the end of the normal flue season, when infections and deaths typically plummet.
The mortality rates in Italy, Netherlands, UK are substantially higher than normal, and the Wu Flu numbers do not account for the uptick. If anything the death rate from this flu is severely understated (can you believe it, the govt. lying?) in order to prevent mass hysteria.
I agree with your statement that “Falling apart… (You) have been had. people!”
The real questions imo are:
Who allowed this to be created and why do we still have these bio weapons programs?
Why did (both left and right) leadership say this was a nothing burger when all intelligence and data pointed to the exact opposite.
Who and what benefits economically from this pandemic? Talking of who benefits politically is asinine. So many retards make this a right left political debate.
150,000 dead Chinese even with severe martial law.
The cruise ships are instructive - 2-4% mortality of those who caught it. The whole captive population was tested, so there was no fudge factors. Average age of cruise ship passengers approx. 46 years old so that the mortality rate should be adjusted downwards somewhat to account for the average of our population 38 years old, and then adjusted upwards since people who travel are generally wealthier and healthier.
“The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available. Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.” 03/27/2020
Trump is messing with the ICD-9 disease coding on the reports to make the numbers lower. Ever heard of “trash in, trash out” in statistics?
The CDC changed the data going in by changing the guidelines for coding disease as COVID, by messing with the coding which is done by hospitals and nursing homes filling out the death certificate (this is done poorly in practice as the doctor does not actually know what the person died from and just takes a wild guess often based on the recent medical history), they turned the data going in into trash, so you can live in your happy thought bubble.
The CDC statistic people were told to make this decision or look for a new job. Same as the Surgeon General was told to tell people not criticize Trump. Same as Salazar is being told to always support Trump no matter if he is wrong. Every Task Force person has to praise Trump twice! during their press statement. It’s a requirement. This change of numbers was a requirement. Just like the President of Ukraine was attempted to be placed under a requirement to make a statement that they are investigating Biden. Just like the President of Mexico was asked by Trump on an official phone call to make a pretend statement that he intends to pay for the wall. Trump ROUTINELY asks and requires people to make FAKE and PRETEND statements from their own person because people like you eat it up. Sorry. COVID is a SERIOUS problem.
Does it look like Trump/Obama/Bush/Clinton were EVER prepared for a biological warfare event? It seems that the USSR had more masks for a German chlorine gas attack during WWI, then we do now!
Everyone should stay home while wearing a tin foil hat to stop the spread of ignorance and stupidity until at least 2025! Save lives, make the stupid go away!
